The market was pretty quiet considering that it was options expiration. Here is how the models look as of 2/21:
Top 20 had a strong week, rallying 1.06% while the S&P 500 dropped 0.08%. This leaves the model up 1.2% more than the market so far in February but still down 1.11% in 2014. The major drivers of the performance this week were the general strength of smaller stocks but also the surge in Energy stocks. We also had a retailer bounce back. Four stocks improved by more than 3%, and only one stock fell by more than 3%.
Conservative Growth/Balanced basically tracked the market, declining by 0.07% while the index fell by 0.03%. The performance in February has been weak, with the model up 0.96% compared to 1.95% for the 60% stock and 40% bond index. So far in February, two stocks have increased by 5% or more, while two have declined by that much. Most of the stocks have increased, but the median return is certainly below the S&P 500.
I continue to expect the markets to churn in Q1. It's possible that the lows were set earlier this quarter (though I see risk to 1700 and possibly 1650), and a break to new highs would lead me to be more bullish technically. I have no change in my expectations that the market should achieve high-single digit returns in 2014.