My Own Analyst

Weekend Update - Last Show in 2013

This ends a long run of sharing my Saturday mornings.  Thanks for all the interest and support, and here's to a great 2014!

The market did what it kept doing almost every week this year - it went up.  With two trading sessions to go, 30% price-return for the S&P 500 is not too far away.  Next year should see more two-way action in my view, with EPS growth hopefully driving more of the return than just PE expansion as well.  The market is facing some overextended technicals, especially in Small-Caps.  I look for some consolidation in Q1.  The S&P 500 didn't suffer a down quarter all year.

Looking at the watchlist ( Download Watchlist122713 ), 90 closed above the 10dma.  3 stocks moved more than 10%, all to the upside:  GWPH, TITN and ANV.  Stocks offering more than 35% to my one-year target include ANV, BCEI, AEO, CTRX, AVP and PLCM.  Stocks that are moderately oversold include EZPW, EPL, RMD, IRG, NEM, ROSE  WFM and CTRX, and I think the following on the "prospects" are of interest too:  JBL, GWW, FIO, BMR.  Black 1s now number 16.  

Here is the current list of stocks in the models with their targets and technical support/resistance:  Download Positionwatch122713

The Weekend Update: Can't Keep a Good Market Down Edition

This is the second-to-last edition - thanks for your interest and support...

The market continued to do what it has done all year:  Rally.  Fear not the taper!  We aren't too far from the 1800 ceiling, but we are clearly above it.  I don't see too many signs of excess, but a few more weeks and the recent rally will look extended.  Utilities are a unit oversold.  The S&P 500 is just .28 overbought, similar to IWM and DIA at .31.  QQQ is only slightly more overbought at 0.60.

Looking at the watchlist ( Download Watchlist122013 ), 80 stocks closed above the 10dma.  Note that CTRX and WFM replace ENV and VRTU.  The only 10% mover was IRBT, which popped 15% on a Raymond James upgrade.  Stocks offering 35% or more to my one-year target include ANV, BCEI, AEO, CTRX, PLCM and AVP .  There are no longer any names on the watchlist more than two units oversold, as bottom-fishing has taken off.   Moderately oversold names include EZPW, IRG, NEM, EPL, RMD, ROSE, ANV and CTRX.  On the prospects, a few jump out: JBL (-2.18) and GWW, FIO and LAYN, all between -1.35 and -1.86. Black 1s number 15.

Here is the spreadsheet for the stocks in the models:  Download Positionwatch122013

Weekend Update - The Highs Are In Edition

The market is likely to close in the red for December, and that's ok.  It isn't going too far and this will end up as a shocker of a year in terms of strong performance.  It looks like the weak stocks are staying weak, that shorts are pressing their holdings lower and that even some of the big winners are starting to roll over.  This is all just short-term stuff - not too surprising after the big run. My 1800 ceiling was pierced marginally (less than 1%), but it is looking solid now.  I still think that next year will see more advances, but I expect the road to have lots of twists and turns compared to 2013.

The stocks on the watchlist ( Download Watchlist121313 ) saw 28 close above the 10dma, a big decline.  No stocks moved by as much as 10% in either direction this week.  35%+ opportunities over the next year include ANV, BCEI, AEO, PLCM, DAR and AVP (GWPH dropped).  Oversold names include EZPW, IRG, and EPL.  Moderately oversold names include RMD, TITN, NEM, IRBT, CSCO, DAR, CAG, AVP, ROSE, ANV and AEO.  On the prospects, some interesting names that jump out are ULTA (-2.57) as well as moderately oversold FIO, LAYN, GWW, CTRX, SHW, RTIX, WFM an CAS.  There are now 16 black 1s, which is a bit troubling and one of the reasons I look for weaker prices in the near-term.

Here are the stocks in the models:  Download Positionwatch121313

Nice Entry Right Here Right Now

DAR priced a large deal - been waiting.  My one-year target is 27.  They just did a huge deal that will close in January.  The equity sale has depressed the price. I like the stock below 19.25

Nice Entry Right Here Right Now

DAR priced a large deal - been waiting.  My one-year target is 26.  They just did a huge deal that will close in January.  The equity sale has depressed the price. I like the stock below 19.25

Weekend Update - Can't Keep A Good Market Down Edition

4 days down and 1 up, but the end result was that the S&P 500 was basically unchanged for the week.  Smaller stocks underperformed, giving up some of their relative gains in a fantastic year for the R2000.  Underlying economic data is coming in a bit stronger than expected, so bonds have been a bit under pressure.  

Looking at the watchlist ( Download Watchlist120613 ), 58 out of 100 closed above the 10dma.  TITN and GWPH were the big losers on the week.  TITN had a horrible report and outlook but now trades below tangible book value.  Investors are concerned that inventory is too high and that the model is busted.  GWPH appears to be just some profit-taking.  On the upside, no stock rose more than 6.5%.  Black 1s now number , while ANV is a black 5.  Oversold names include IRG, EZPW and EPL.  Moderately oversold are NEM, CLH, TITN, ANV, SWI, RMD, IRBT, and CSCO.  On the prospects, ULTA is -2.44 (boy did I mess up not going short that one at The Analytical Trader, but it just killed me a quarter ago).  Other names that I think are interesting and moderately oversold are CTRX, LAYN, GWW, CAS and FIO.  35%+ names include ANV, BCEI, PLCM, GWPH and AEO.  ANV is super-risky given their debt and weak industry conditions.  We have enough energy exposure, but I do like BCEI.  PLCM's new CEO underwhelmed me - I had hoped to become more constructive (my work isn't done though).  GWPH is a very interesting story and one where I would likely add at 27.50.  AEO is one I might add - very tough space.

Here are the stocks in the models: Download Positionwatch120613 

Weekend Update - 8 Straight Weeks Up Edition

The market was basically flat for the second straight week, but technically higher.  I have long been pointing to big psychological resistance of 1800 on the S&P 500 (the high on Friday was an all-time high of just under 1814, with a close of 1805).  It was a pretty typical holiday-shortened week, with low volume.

Looking at the watchlist ( Download Watchlist112913 ), 70 of 100 closed above the 10dma.  There were no 10% movers.  Oversold names include IRG and EZPW, with EPL, CLH, ANV, NEM, SEI, CSCO, RMD and MSM more than a unit oversold.  CTRX, GWW and LAYN jump out on the moderately oversold "prospects".  Black 1s dropped to 10 (more on the way in two weeks, though), with only ANV a black 5.  Names offering 35% or more to my one-year target include the same three as last week:  ANV, PLCM and BCEI. 

On stocks in the models ( Download Positionwatch112913 ), I adjusted a few targets. CHS dropped slightly on lower estimates.  QCOM lifted slightly.

Weekend Update - 7 Straight Weeks Up Edition

The gain was tiny, but it was another winning week.  We broke thought the 1800 ceiling (and 16K on the DJIA), but I don't think that the grinding highs are consequential.  I am still expecting a pretty tame close to the year and am sticking to 1740 close, which implies a down December. 

Looking at the watchlist ( Download Watchlist112213), 69 stocks closed above the 10dma.  10% losers included ANV and BCEI, while gainers included RAVN, which broke to an all-time high.  FL too broke to an all-time high, but its gain was modest.  Stocks offering 35% or more to my one-year target include ANV, BCEI and PLCM.  Oversold names include IRG and EZPW, and, to a lesser degree, EPL, CLH, SW, ANV, CSCO, MSM, IIVI, NEM and AVP.  On the prospects, I would point to VMEM, a failed IPO that was clobbered Friday, and LQDT.  Others that are moderately oversold and worth a look are CTRX, LAYN, GWW and RTIX.  Black1s fell slightly to 12, while ANV is the only black 5.

Here are the stocks in the models :   Download Positionwatch112213

Lots of News

FL had a nice quarter - looks like huge breakout potential.

HAYN looks nasty - locked into bad nickel price

SMCI - Davidson initiates with a 18.50 target (Buy)

I added PAY recently to the watchlist - Jefferies bullish and goes 21-29.  This is a CEO change story - really like the guy.

Weekend Update - 2013 Peak Edition

Who knows exactly how things play out, but I don't expect to be significantly wrong on this one.  The 1798 close is near where I think the market is capped (1800), and I think that we could back-fill just a little here.  As I look to 2014, while I expect more of the same (slow economy with modest growth, a little PE expansion), I think that the low for 2014 will not be the first day of trading either.  I dont see a huge amount of downside and expect that with about a 1740 close that I still project, 1600-2000 should constrain the trading next year, with a close of 1968 based on 16 PE.

As far as technicals, I can't find too much support for much of a pullback or for the rally to peter out.  As far as when the market goes to "black 1" that will not be until .  In terms of price momentum, SPY is 0.44, while IWM is just 0.13 after some recent underperformance.  SPY won't possibly be black 1 until January.

This week, the watchlist ( Download Watchlist111513 ) had 78 names close above the 10dma, a little cautious.  I should note 4 changes, with ATX, EGOV, HP and PLPC out and AEO, EPL, GWPH and PAY in.  There were no 10% losers.  GWPH, a biotech focused on cannabis-based therapeutics, soared (after my article perhaps), while PBI continues to make me look foolish for booking the gain and hoping to get back in.  I underestimated how much this story would resonate with investors - not much changing there in terms of the numbers (just the valuation). Black 1s now number 13.  35%+ opportunities include the risky ANV and also EPL, PLCM, BCEI and AVP.  VOLC dropped off. Oversold names include IRG and EZPW, while those more than 1 unit oversold would also include SWI, IIVI, EPL, AVP, DORM, CSCO and ANV.  On the prospects, I would also point to LAYN, CTRX,  and RTIX. 

Here is the spreadsheet for the positions in the models ( Download Positionwatch111513 ).  I updated a few targets.