The market didn't get the bounce yesterday I was envisioning after the reversal on the open which I did get. Today, I see Jackson Hole as a likely non-event. The SPY has bounced at what I see as likely support for the day near 115.25. As we know though, the markets can be a lot more volatile than we envision. Underneath, I see good support near 114.25. It will end up being a good week if we can close above that level in my view and a great one if we can recapture 117 or higher. I continue to expect a lot of fits and starts - that's why I posted my fade comments on the open yesterday. The likely path is two steps forward and one back until we get closer to 125.50 or so on SPY.
If I had place my best guess on what might happen today a la Bernanke, stocks will likely rally a little, but bonds and gold could get slammed hard. There is a chance his talk on the economy leads us to believe that the recent "two years" is not set in stone but rather an expectation (which is what I think it is). In this case, bonds get slammed because they are viewed as riskier and gold likely follows because of the reduced chance of free money forever. Still, the more likely scenario is a big nothing.
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