My Own Analyst

FLIR Flops

I think that they will get a pass on the near-term challenges and like the stock 29-30 with a 36 target a year out (20 PE)

Treasure

CPRT Reports

This could be a buy entry...

 

The company missed big, but this is due to acquisition costs from what I can tell.  Second, they ruled out REIT conversion.  

Stock is offered at 30.50, down more than 10%.  I think it should be >32.  My one-year target is 40 based on 20PE.  

Treasure...

CPRT Reports

This could be a buy entry...

 

The company missed big, but this is due to acquisition costs from what I can tell.  Second, they ruled out REIT conversion.  

Stock is offered at 30.50, down more than 10%.  I think it should be >32.  My one-year target is 40 based on 20PE.  

Treasure...

Not-so-mighty Titan

I should not have given these guys the benefit of the doubt.  Their quarter wasn't bad, but they lowered the bar dramatically for the balance of the year.  The sales drop by about 5%, while EPS plunge from 1.79 consensus to 1.20-1.50.  Agriculture and Construction were both cited.  This isn't a huge surprise, but the magnitude of the cut sure is.  $15?  As I type, and it's very early, it is 16.45 bid.

RAVN

Watchlist company RAVN had a bad report, but this could offer a good entry.  The press release had an underlying enthusiasm despite the bummer of a quarter.  They sales and earnings declined from a year ago, mainly due to their Aerostar biz, which has been hurt by government spending issues.  The call is in 30 minutes, but I will have to catch the replay.  I would blindly stab at this one if it gets to 27-28.  More later...

RAVN

This is very interesting and perhaps huge - not sure yet.  It's a great company and down in price.  I don't see the risk to buying some to see if this part of the story plays out.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/6833422-raven-industries-collaborates-with-google-on-balloon-design-and-manufacturing-project-bringing-internet-access-to-remote-areas-of-the-world-via-high-altitude-balloons

RAVN Flies Into Wall - Splat

RAVN missed badly (shrinking) and guided for more shrinkage in Q2 before a H2 acceleration.  I love this company long-term, but it was expensive.  My target is 38 a year out.  30-31 is the right price most likely.  I will report back later if I have anything to add after hearing the call.

 

Each of the company's three divisions posted sales declines compared with a year ago, reflecting the current sluggish growth environment and tough year-over-year comparisons versus last year's record first quarter.

MIDD

MIDD was awesome.  I think that the next quarter could be tough, but I thought this might be and it wasn't.  Their business, with the exception of Europe, is very strong, and the company accelerated their time-line for getting Viking to full margin (20% EBITDA) by a year.  The bottom-line is that my target goes up on higher earnings estimates to 187 from 173.5.  I think that the stock is a buy in the low 150s, though its not my favorite stock at the moment.

CLH

Clean Harbors reported its first full quarter following the Safety-Kleen acquisition, and there were lots of moving parts.  The sales were light due to weakness in Oil services (Canada primarily) as well as terrible pricing in the new re-refining biz just acquired.  The rest of the business, including Safety-Kleen's core biz, did fine.  For the full year, the company cut sales expectations by $100mm after missing by $30mm - this is about 3%.  They maintained their adjusted EBITDA target of $605-620mm based to better deal synergies.  They described these in detail.  I think these problems were very well known and explain the weak action.  I like the stock still and won't be changing my 77 target.

TITN

TITN would be 2 units oversold at 18.  It is just 1.2 units at 21.80.  I listened to the call and don't expect a quick bounce on this one - rather shockingly disappointing results in Construction...

I have reduced my target to 35 but will be reviewing it further.  The stock is heavily shorted, so it could bounce, but I expect resistance at 24.