My Own Analyst

FL Guides Above Consensus

FL was basiscally in line, but the guidance of "a double digit percentage profit increase for fiscal 2013" is better than the analyst consensus of +9%.  There was a lot of pessimism going into this report, especially considering the disasters in mall-based teen retailers (ANF, AEO, ARO).  If we weren't long this in CG/B and a short-term trade at Marketfy, I would be looking to get in quickly.  If I hear anything on the call that tempers my enthusiasm, I will post here (9am EST)

BYI Did Drop

That was strange (the early rally) - stock less followed than I thought when I can figure it out before the big boyz.  This is a good company but the stock was a short.  If anyone is involved, I would still target 70 but keep in mind it's only a technical trade and don't marry the short...

BYI: How To Trade

I think this is a good short near 75 if you can get it.  The stock is a black 1. They just announced the SHFL buy, but it won't close for a year.  The stock overreacted anyway in my view.   Here's the reason to short:  Their cryptic guidance.  It wasn't spelled out, but my read is that there is a problem with this current quarter.  The consensus was for EPS to be similar in Q1 and Q2 and for H2 to be stronger than H1.  What they are saying, is that indeed H2 will be stronger but Q2 will be higher than Q1.  Given that full year guidance isn't changing, it's simple math:  Q1 is weak.  Short-term issue, short-term trade opportunity....

 

Sell 74.50 now to buy 70 later this afternoon or tomorrow morning hopefully...

TPX Rival Hammered

SCSS fell about 10% in the AH after missing Q2 estimates...

MARKETFY TRADE

Several of you haven't resubscribed - just a reminder, as I put through the exit of GDX and a new trade this morning...

MAKO

MAKO trade here stopped out, but the way it worked out it is live on Marketfy (stop was 10.88 with a lower entry).  They report in a few hours...

Short-Term Trades

Given that all of you have access to Marketfy, I am no longer posting ST Trades here.  I have a bit of an issue with the inability to have automatic closes on Marketfy and am working out of this EZPW stop break, but I will be posting a new buy momentarily hopefully.  If you have any questions on how to access Marketfy, please let me know

New ST Trade

This one is different and a bit speculative, but ANV is a gold stock that has been HAMMERED.  The sector is bouncing today, but this one turned red after opening higher.  Very oversold - more than 2 units.  Stock is at at 19.47 with a 19 low.

• Target: 21.49
• Stop: 18.99
• Take-the-money:  20.30

IRG Trade Closes +5%

ST Trade in IRG closed today - it was a small winner, falling short of our target and below the "take-the-money" level, which was exceeded during the trade.  We booked a 5% gain after a quick 3% loss back on 2/7 when we put it on.

This leaves EZPW and MAKO as longs and LOW as a short.  LOW reports Monday morning...

ST Trade Update

EZPW trade expires on the close.  This was from 2/6, when the stock was 21.03, and we had a 23.15 target and a 20.64 stop.  The subsequent high was yesterday, at 22.65.  I want to keep it, so whatever the close is today will dictate where the old trade ends and the new one begins.  The close and new price is 21.63.

• Target:  23.99
• Stop:  21.08
• Take-the-money:  22.49