My Own Analyst

NEw ST Trade

Stopped out on MAKO - calling it 11.44 (was 11.48 stop) - opened at 11.50.  Re-trade, offered at 11.46:

• Target:  13.49
• Stop 10.98
• Take-the-money:  12.49

Why MAKO is Falling

Wow, I should have been more patient, as I read about ISRG last night and it was slow to get hit so I figured no big deal.  A study came out suggesting that the robotic hysterectomy is more expensive without better outcomes than laparascopy.  I actually don't think this is really an issue for ISRG (where I am negative for other reasons), but I think it's bleeding through to MAKO, which is REALLY STUPID.    Hopefully the trade doesn't get stopped at 11.48.

New ST Trade

MAKO expired last night - up 7.4%.  I want to reload this "black 5" offered at 11.95:

• TArget:  13.99
• Stop 11.48
• Take-the-money 12.99

New ST Trade

Well, my timing isn't so good on DORM - it touched our stop-price this morning of 36.76.  I will shift my focus to LOW, which is a better trading stock with similar dynamics (black 1, somewhat expensive).  The only thing is that I think DORM has a near-term catalyst in a weak Q4 report, but maybe it ends up being Q1.  LOW is bid at an all-time high.  HD had been acting weaker.  My goal is to get the black 1 corrected, which means the 50dma area.  The 50dma is 36.39, so I think there is a trade.  LOW is 39.69 bid

• Target:  36.5
• Stop 40.21
• Take-the-money:  38.25

 

Reset that Trade

One of our subscribers told me he doesn't like the DORM short, which was officially stopped out.  I do, and I am resetting it.  I used a bad stop and will pay the price as I reset it below.  The stock is 35.98 bid for the new trade:

• Target: 32.12
• Stop:  36.76
• Take-the-money:  34.50

 

New ST Trade

Very disappointing on CSTR, as it was a great ST Trade that I set a bit too aggressively initially but opened below our stop this morning at 47.41 (47.40 low right after), where it is officially closed yet a great bargain in my view.  The vagaries of my rules!  Within that opening minute, the stock traded as high as 49.30.  To repeat, yet again, I like this one a lot and may add it to Top 20.  I don't expect my target of 70.50 to change.

 

Let's go back to DORM.  As you may recall, I shared my negative views on Seeking Alpha recently.  ORLY reported yesterday and inventory rose only slightly.  This bodes poorly perhaps for DORM -  hard to be sure.  Technically, the stock has been a black 1 for a while.  The valuation is fairly high.  The recent pop was due to being added to the S&P 600.  I continue to have a 28 target a year out.  The stock is 35.69 bid, and I expect them to report before this trade expires on 2/25.

• Target: 32.12
• Stop:  36.26
• Take-the-money:  34.50

CSTR Q4

Well, we may lose this trade tomorrow on the stop-loss side (47.62), though it ends on time in any event.  I am not concerned about the report, but it won't change the dynamics of a huge short-interest - it doesn't seem like they will need to cover.  One problem was in the coffee kiosk rollout, which was delayed due to a production problem, but the issue is behind them.  I think also that the Q1 guidance is viewed somewhat negatively - tough comp on DVD plus a larger investment in VZ venture.

The weakness may allow us to buy in Top 20.  After getting real close to our 54.74 target (54.11) on the ST Trade very early, it's frustrating to miss and round-trip, but we'll see...

Whoops

I was too early...

 

Reset at 12.78

 

• Target:  14.49
• STop: 12.39
• Take-the-money13.99

 

NEw ST Trade

IRG - might reduce my target to 18, but I LIKE it.  Already seeing analysts negative (Baird).  Stock at 13.36

• Target: 14.99
• Stop:  12.99
• Take-the-money:  13.99

FINL Trade Closes + 3%

FINL hit the two-week expiration, closing out at +3%, which was really a push with the market rising 1-2% since 1/22.  AVX ends today, CSTR on Friday and MAKO on 2/19 (or 2/18 if the market is open on President's Day).

Let's go with EZPW.  I have a local angle on this one I think.  Houston passed or is about to pass the last of the big-city local ordinances in TX.  I read about this, and it is not a big deal from what I can tell.  I am not sure if this has been the reason for the sharp pullback, but I am close to adding in Top 20 to our position after having trimmed.  The stock is at 21.03. 

• Target: 23.15
• Stop: 20.64
• Take-the-money:  21.99