My Own Analyst

ANV

I am almost done with this call, and I can't emphasize enough the risk here.  While the company could get rescued, I am not sure that it can avoid bankruptcy, especially if gold prices fall further.  Their CapEx is locked in for this year ($200mm more) and they will need to spend $25mm next year.  No one will trust this management team.  First, they said no equity sale, then they sold equity.  The new CEO affirmed guidance and was flat out wrong - the operational issues were much worse than protrayed.  As long as gold is weak, the likelihood of acquisition is low.  This stock was one of my four picks for Q3 in a contest (along with a short in TPX and longs in MAKO and MASI), so I am bummed to say this, but I think it's dead money for a while at best.

VRNG Soars

The stock ticked up a little in AH.  I am not seeing news, but it is soaring to the highest level in many months this morning.  The best I can tell is that the filing Friday was not that meaningful, but people feel the decision is imminent.  If you own it, my guess is it is 2.80-3.30.  I have seen this one hurt people a lot.  I would consider selling some in the mid-4s (4.20 bid, 4.40 high so far).  I continue to expect a lot of selling near 5 unless the ruling is better than expected (3.5% running royalty on 20.9% of domestic Ad Sense).

VRNG Update

No clue, but the volume is spectacular...

As a reminder, I think $5 is the objective on an "as expected" verdict, but this will likely be a good place to sell.  3% and change is what's expected.  This thing is so slow to play out I need to check my notes!  There is a chance that the royalty rate could be 5% or even 7%, in which case the spike price could be as high as 6-7.  

 

Update:  I haven't seen it, but I saw a headline of a ruling for "supplemental interest" - not a big deal if this is the case.  But, it shows the potential for a pop if we do get good news

MAKO

So far so good.  I will listen to the call to confirm, but the guidance was unchanged (so not a disaster).  There were some one-time charges this quarter and a deferred sale in Italy - looks like a reasonably good quarter though.  Huge short-interest (like PBI)...

VRNG Update

It's been like watching paint dry, but the stock is spiking on volume with no news as of this moment.  Still waiting for judge to rule.  Yesterday, USPTO affirmed a patent.  I never thought that was much of an issue, but some did.  Still, it all comes down to the judge's ruling, which is well beyond due.  I continue to think that the expected outcome leads to a $5 print and then maybe a pullback into the mid/low 4s.  GOOG will certainly appeal.  If he were to rule a higher royalty rate than the jury originally indicated, the stock has upside....

HUGE short-interest...

VRNG Update

I posted somewhat negatively after quickly interpreting the MSFT settlement.  I am disappointed, but it doesn't change the story.  It just didn't make sense to rally on it.  The stock is being added to the Russell 2000 next month, which is worth a little.  The big story remains the running royalty award, which has taken forever but will be here eventually.  No doubt, GOOG will file an appeal, but if it plays out as I expect, the stock will go higher.  I think it could pop to as high as 5 and then settle in at 4 area.  So, I like it here near 3.  There are better and worse scenarios.  My worst-case is $1.50, and the better scenarios would be surprises in the size of the royalty.  Such a gamblers's stock...

VRNG

They signed a deal with MSFT for $1mm plus 5% of GOOG proceeds.  I would sell into the strength (3.39) - this isn't a good deal.  This is not as good as many hoped (an independent settlement).  GOOG will delay and delay - quicker cash would have been better.  I would be a buyer closer to 3 as we await the judge's ruling on future royalties.  I do still think it has a shot at 5.

MAKO Question

Someone wants to know what I make of the MAKO action.  The chart looks horrible.  As I mentioned, I changed my support to 9.50 - this would be a new low.  These lows (modest 52-week low) don't look solid, at least yet.  There were no financial terms released, but suing someone and then having to pay to buy them isn't exactly the best road to prosperity.  This is a market where quality is winning, and MAKO is speculative.  I wouldn't commit any trading capital at this time.  I am hoping (for Top 20's sake) that they can show some traction soon.

$VRNG Update

VRNG traded soft yesterday due to a filing made by GOOG asking for a delay in the rulings because they may have what is known as a "workaround".  This was one of the risks always, but not one that got a lot of consideration because of the unlikelihood.  What this would mean is that they have created a way to provide search results that bypasses the technology provided by VRNG's patents.  This seems implausible, but, if true, it would eliminate future royalty streams once implemented.  The news came out during trading and was discussed, but a Seeking Alpha article written by a lightweight who has been flapping a lot lately took a pretty dim view, and the stock sunk in after-hours.  VRNG filed a response:  http://www.scribd.com/doc/136339909/VRNG-v-GOOG-20130416-D-Renewed-Motion-Becker-Opp  We'll have to wait and see, but this adds a lot of near-term risk.  VRNG seems to have been on the short-end of the stick in many ways - I hope that this isn't one more time.

VRNG Update

VRNG popped on Thursday on news that it is in settlement talks with MSFT.  I have been bullish on this one, but it hasn't been so great.  This morning, it has attracted some bids, trading near 3.50.  I think the "right" price is between here and $4.  The real issue is GOOG - we continue to just wait for the judge to rule on future royalties.  I have portrayed this one as likely to get to 5-6, but it could be worth more, perhaps considerably if people overpay.  Leaving that aside, I think that MSFT could be worth $200mm gross.  That's just a guess, but, if you net out taxes and contingency fees, that would add more than $1 to the 5-6.  So, it makes sense that the stock is higher.  I think it creates all sorts fo speculative fantasy about potential impact on the GOOG litigation.  Some think it helps, I think GOOG doesn't care about settling and we need to just wait for the judge.