My Own Analyst

Lots of News

FL had a nice quarter - looks like huge breakout potential.

HAYN looks nasty - locked into bad nickel price

SMCI - Davidson initiates with a 18.50 target (Buy)

I added PAY recently to the watchlist - Jefferies bullish and goes 21-29.  This is a CEO change story - really like the guy.

EZPW

My bad sticking with these jokers...  They wrote down their investment in A&B, so it looks worse than it was, but they still had a bad quarter - barely profitable.  The stock is very cheap, but these guys are incompetent at best, maybe criminal.  I should have exited already and am glad I didn't add to it.

Morning Update

VOLC released data last night that supports its technology, IVUS.

INGR missed and guided lower - similar dynamics.  The numbers for next year will probably decline 3-5%, and this is about what should happen with the stock (buyer near 65).

BGFV could rally sharply - their report had all sorts of positive underlying aspects.  Absent a one-time charge, they beat despite missing on sales.  Still, they managed to grow at a time where top-line has been challenged, especially as they are in California, which was soft this summer and where weather played a role.  This stock could get back to its old highs near 25 next year (my target is 24), and, for now, I like it to 19.

SWI actually had a good call.  This is one that could have a good 2014.  I am inclined to stick with this one, though it hasn't been a fun one to hold so far.

CHS Downgrade

I usually don't care about upgrades and downgrades - just another guy's opinion.  Wells Fargo's downgrade of CHS to Hold, though, bothers me.  Not only did they reduce their target from 18-20 to 16-18, but they chopped their earnings estimate for 2014 (FY15) from 1.24 to 1.14.  This is a bold statement and intentional, as the lowest previous estimate was 1.15 - he wanted to be an "outlier".  The 20-analyst consensus was 1.25.

Heaven & Hell

We have had some winners, but I am sick of our losers, TITN, SWI and EZPW.

Today, EZPW had some bad news - it's investment in a UK company (A&B) is in trouble.  It's just more of the same here...

 

SWI Downgraded by GS

GS cut SWI to Sell.  More often than not, I see GS downgrades as buy signals...

Monday Musings

Summers dropping out is huge - that guy was bad news.  I never thought he would get confirmed...

CLH announced a $60mm acquisition of bankrupt Evergreen Oil, which gets them deeper into re-refining with a #2 position in CA as well as some other assets.  They didn't quantify, but if CEO McKim says it's a great deal, then it probably is.  This stock has so much potential - it has been disappointing to say the least.  

 

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IIVI Buys Assets of OCLR

It's a somewhat complex deal, but IIVI is buying the majority of assets from OCLR.  They paid $115mm for one set and $5mm for an option to buy another.  I am not sure why they aren't just buying the whole company.  OCLR has been withering away.  The deal gets them into adjacent products, one of which is nice - fiber lasers (a gap in their portfolio).  It is slightly dilutive this year.  My guess is that they got a good price - OCLR was teetering on bankruptcy and needed a bailout.

Tuesday Update

Texans 31, Chargers 28 (sorry, Bob!)...

CAG cut their outlook slightly - stock has been acting poorly and hopefully this marks the end.  I really like this for a conservative play.

CHS again has an activist investor on board -very positive on that.

PSMT August same-store sales were up a nice 10% - stock too expensive for me

The Dow Jones booted AA, BAC and HPQ and added GS, NKE and V

I would be a buyer of BAC on any weakness on that one...  Maybe a better idea is just to be a buyer of BAC - looks great on the chart...

 

CHS - 13D Filed

First, holy crap did I miss FIO trade - dang...

CHS has an activist investor that just filed today:

This Statement on Schedule 13D is being filed by and on behalf of Blue Harbour Group, LP, a Delaware limited partnership (“Manager”), Blue Harbour Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Manager GP”), and Clifton S. Robbins, a citizen of the United States of America (“Mr. Robbins”).  Manager, Manager GP and Mr. Robbins are herein sometimes referred to each as a “Reporting Person” and collectively as the “Reporting Persons.”

 

The address of the principal office of Manager and Manager GP is 646 Steamboat Road, Greenwich, Connecticut 06830, and Mr. Robbins’ business address is c/o Manager at the foregoing address.  Mr. Robbins is the Chief Executive Officer of Manager.

 

Manager is principally involved in the business of providing investment advisory and investment management services.  Manager GP is principally involved in the business of serving as the general partner of Manager.

 

                       During the last five years, none of the Reporting Persons nor, to the best of their knowledge, any of their officers and directors, has (i) been convicted in a criminal proceeding (excluding traffic violations or similar misdemeanors) or (ii) been a party to a civil proceeding of a judicial or administrative body of competent jurisdiction and as a result of such proceeding was or is subject to a judgment, decree or final order enjoining future violations of, or prohibiting or mandating activities subject to, federal or state securities laws or finding any violation with respect to such laws.

 

ITEM 3.  SOURCE AND AMOUNT OF FUNDS OR OTHER CONSIDERATION.

 

The 9,005,561 shares of Common Stock reported herein by the Reporting Persons were acquired by the Manager, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $125,447,465 (excluding brokerage commissions).  The shares of Common Stock that are reported on this Statement on Schedule 13D were acquired with working capital of the Manager, which at any given time may include funds borrowed on margin in the ordinary course and on customary terms.

 

They recently added to their position to push them over the 5% threshold:

 

Reporting Person	Date	Transaction	Number of Shares of Common Stock*	Price Per Share*
Manager	8/28/2013	Purchase	500,000	$ 16.31 - $ 16.34
Manager	9/3/2013	Purchase	150,000	$ 15.60
Manager	9/4/2013	Purchase	215,000	$ 15.42 - $ 15.48
Manager	9/6/2013	Purchase	63,900	$ 15.50