My Own Analyst

JBL

Carlos asked:  Trash or Treasure.  I like it at $20, down on CSCO.  Plus, it's based in Florida!

Volcano Fizzles

This is a potential dip to buy - offered at 23 in AH.  They company pre-announced a slightly weak Q3 and gave slightly weak guidance for Q4 and in-line sales guidance for 2014 (9-11% growth is actually a bit below the current consensus).  My one-year target is 28.50 maybe going to 28, but there is room for advancement.   I would be a buyer at 21 for sure, perhaps higher...

FLIR Flops

I think that they will get a pass on the near-term challenges and like the stock 29-30 with a 36 target a year out (20 PE)

Treasure

AEO: Trash or Treasure

This is mainly a technical and gut-feel observation - I haven't even read the press release (just news service headlines).  Buy AEO at 13.50-14.  This space is notoriously volatile, and the second shoe just fell.  The stock was hammered on a pre-announcement, and today it is getting whacked on crappy guidance.  

Lots of cash, this is a takeover target...

Income Idea

SLRC is a BDC (business development corp) that just slashed its dividend due to some loans being prepaid.  The dividend falls 1/3, from .60 to .40 quarterly.  The stock closed above 25 and could drop to 20, where it would yield 8% and would also be trading at 90% of NAV.  It would be a great entry at 20...

 Solar Capital (SLRC) Reports Sale of DSW Group, Redemption of Midcap Financial; Trims Qtr. Dividend Amount

Solar Capital Ltd. (Nasdaq: SLRC) announced that DSW Group, Inc. has entered into a definitive sale agreement. The Company expects to receive approximately $150 million in gross proceeds for its second lien loan to DS Waters of America, Inc. and its preferred investments in DSW Holding Company, LLC (together, “DS Waters”). Additionally, the Company has received notice that its investment in Midcap Financial Intermediate Holdings, LLC (“Midcap Financial”) will be redeemed at a premium to par for gross proceeds of approximately $87 million. Solar Capital expects estimated total proceeds received from these monetizations to be approximately $237 million, which it intends to use to reduce Solar Capital’s outstanding revolving indebtedness, pending prudent reinvestment. As a result of these significant monetizations, and pending re-investment of these proceeds in new portfolio investments, the Company expects to generate significantly reduced investment income in the near-term. Accordingly, the Company currently anticipates net investment income to be in the range of $0.41 to $0.43 per share for the quarter ended June 30, 2013. Net asset value per share at June 30, 2013 is also expected to be in the range of $22.35 to $22.40. In order to better align the quarterly dividend with expected near-term earnings, the board of directors of Solar Capital has declared a reduced quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share, beginning with the Company’s third fiscal quarter ending September 30, 2013.

 

SolarWinds: Trash or Treasure

SWI isn't into alternative energy - it's a cool software company that helps software developers with its tools. I love the company, but it's been too expensive.  Now is a great opportunity to buy in my view, and I will be adding it to the watchlist (as I remove MPR soon).  They had a disappointing quarter, but the earnings estimates are unchanged for 2013 while analysts cut sales projections by 2%.  Treasure...

Edwards Life Sciences: Trash or Treasure

EW is getting pounded after reducing guidance.  This stock has always been too expensive - it's an acquisition candidate and a pure-play in a growth area (heart valves).  Very bullish story developing a bit slowly.  I can justify a 78 to 80 target on 2o PE a year out on reduced numbers, and the stock is at 63.50...  Treasure

IIVI - Trash or Treasure?

IIVI continues to face several challenges, but seems to have also overcome a few.  On a positive note, their military biz (20%) is stable, and their infrared biz, heavily exposed to Europe, is solid.  On the other hand, the decline in rare earth metals (selenium and tellurium) has been just horrible and remains so.  Additionally, the highly volatile Chinese telecom market has been weak lately.  I hate to see the stock so low (since it's in Top 20), but I am not concerned at all in the long-term.  The chart had been bothering me - too much time near the lows.  Now there is a clean low.  I am not sure it's a buy right here right now (14.50), but I see strong support at 14 and a ton of value.  The company is likely to grow next year, and EPS should be about $0.90 for this fiscal year that ends in June (the consensus was .96).  15PE for a unique company like this will ultimately be a bargain.  My target is currently based on 20PE plus a little cash.  I will likely reduce it from 26.50 to 24.50.  Clearly I have been wrong to be involved here, but I will call it Treasure and may look to increase the position in the coming weeks.

TTEK: Trash or Treasure?

Tetra Tech (TTEK)  is getting slammed today.  I don't think I have ever mentioned this one - it's one my prospects.  The company is based in CA and is an engineering and consulting company focused on water primarily.  The stock was hit on a pre-announcement and has slipped from a multiyear high set last month of 31.50 to a low of 26.22 (26.40 now).  This is pretty much the middle of a 24-28 range that was in effect for all of 2012 until the stock broke out in early 2013.

The company announced expected weakness in H2 (year ending 9/2013), with a .20-.30 hit to their 1.85-1.96 guidance (10-15%) due to a delay in Quebec (which resulted in a one-time severance charge) and, not surprisingly, weakness in mining.  According to the Baird analyst, federal business is 30% of sales and remains stable, which is positive.  They say the stock is an opportunity below 25, but I don't think it gets there and would be interested at 26.  I think that the earnings should come down about 5% for the year-ending 9/2014 - that estimate was 2.19. let's call it 2.08.  

The stock fell short last month of its 32 all-time high set in 2009, and I bet it gets back.  My back-of-the-envelope guess is that within six months it can get to 15PE on that 2.08 - let's call that 31.  I will try to look more closely at this one, as I have considered adding it to my watchlist.

Trash or Treasure: GOLD!

ANV is getting hammered today as the CEO has been booted.  I think that this is likely positive with the caveat that I am struggling a bit on this name.  Bad sector, risky project.

The stock is near 16 as the knee-jerk reaction is to assume that there is more bad news coming.  I think that the news has already been bad - they have overpromised and underdelivered.  This is a pretty small gold miner in the scheme of things, all domestic (which is good these days) and great balance sheet.  M&A is the next rumor?  I wish FINL would hit the target, as I wold buy this one right here near 16.